Forex Market News

Rupee Is Likely To Negative

Government bonds surged, with the benchmark paper ending at a record high, as investors stepped up purchase on prospects that Federal Reserve’s policy stance rules out possibilities of any rate hike till the year end .The benchmark 7.59% bond maturing in 2026 ended at | 102.74 against the previous close of | 102.29 . The benchmark 7.59% 2026 bond yield ended at 7.19%.
The rupee rose to a two-week high ag ainst the dollar, tracking gains in regional peers, amid a non event by the Fed .The dollar index against six major currencies ended at 96.73, down 0.33% from the previous close of 97.05.
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Sell USDINR Strategy 67.45 – 67.48

Pair in the past session opened with a positive gap but failed to end with a bullish candle. Daily MACD has rolled over to the buy side; however, rising channel resistance line is pegged at 67.5 7 and surpass of the same can confirm the bullishness in the pair until then view remains bearish.
US dollar index is trading at 96 . 52 , remaining on a weaker note after the FOMC statement on Wednesday. Expectations of a rate hike being pushed to December overpowered the optimism displayed in the statement. All the focus would be on the BOJ, as expectations of further stimulus could drive the currency markets today .
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GBPINR

GBPINR opened the session with positive gap and after testing the resistance line prices fell sharply to end around days low with bearish candle.
Now, on the upside 89.24 and on the downside 87.81 are the trend deciding levels. Daily MACD is trading above the signal line thus we can expect upside breakout.
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EUROINR

Euro is trading at 1 . 1083 , continuing to remain in the range of 1 . 10 – 1 . 11 for the last few weeks . Employment data from Germany helped the currency to breach the 1 . 11 level but the rally fizzled out to take the currency back . Expect volatility in the pair going into BOJ but 1 . 1150 remains a strong resistance and any rallies can be sold .
Similar to USD and GBP, EURINR too opened with positive gap and ended with bullish candlestick with uptick volumes. Daily MACD too rolled over to the buy side. Above all indicate that prices can test the rising resistance line pegged at 75.5.
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Sell US$INR August Fut; Target Of 67.20-67.00

US dollar index is trading at 96.67,dropping in the aftermath of the US FOMC statement .The statement was in line with expectations and the FED has acknowledged the improvement in the economic conditions and the near term risks that was discussed in the previous meetings have diminished.Markets began to price in at least one hike this year.Expect the US dollar to remain supported at the current level before the bank of Japan statement tomorrow.
In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee August contract on the NSE ended at 67.51. The August contract open interest rose 15.49% from the previous day September contract open interest was up 2.86% from the previous day We expect the US dollar to meet supply pressure on rallies. Utilise upsides in US Dollar.
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EUROINR

Euro is trading at 1.1063,appreciating against the US dollar after the FOMC statement was released yesterday. There was no major economic data that was reported from the Euro area yesterday and German unemployment and European consumer confidence would be the key data to watch out.Euro is likely to remain stuck in the 1.0950-1.11 range for the time being.
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Yen Gains Ahead Of BOJ, As Dollar Slips After Fed Comments

The yen gained on Thursday on speculation that the Bank of Japan won’t deliver radical stimulus this week, while the dollar took a step back after the US Federal Reserve stopped short of signaling a near-term rate rise. The dollar skidded 0.5 percent to 104.92 yen, while the euro was 0.3 percent lower at 116.19 yen EURJPY= ahead of the BOJ’s two-day policy meeting that begins on Thursday.
Yen moves and political considerations could be decisive factors for the BOJ, which would prefer to conserve its policy resources in case the Japanese economy takes a turn for the worse. As investors digest the details of what the central bank does, or refrains from doing, strategists say the yen could be in for volatile trading on Friday, and the dollar might even test the 2 1/2-year low of 99 yen it plumbed in the wake of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union. “Investors will be closely watching not just the statement, but Kuroda’s press conference after the meeting ends, for clues to future policy,” said Kumiko Ishikawa, senior FX analyst at Gaitame.Com Research Institute in Tokyo.
A Citi survey of its clients and financial institutions earlier this month showed 80 percent expected the dollar to fall more than 3 percent against the yen if the BOJ stands pat on Friday and does not signal any action in September. More than 30 percent think the drop would be more than 4 percent. The Fed, meanwhile, said on Wednesday after its two-day policy meeting that it was less worried about possible shocks to the US economy, suggesting that a hike as early as September was not out of the question.
Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished,” Fed policymakers said. But the central bank’s improved mood wasn’t enough to cement expectations that it was gearing up to raise interest rates anytime soon. “If the US economy continues to grow despite the increased headwinds, slack in the labor market will diminish, and we expect the Fed to squeeze in one rate hike before the end of the year, most likely in December,” strategists at Rabobank wrote. “However, a December call also means that we think that the risk of the FOMC not hiking at all in 2016 is substantial,” they said.
The dollar index, which tracks the US unit against a basket of six major rivals, slipped 0.5 percent to 96.589 .DXY, moving away from its overnight high of 97.530. Earlier this week, it had risen as high as 97.569, its highest level since March. The euro edged 0.1 percent higher to $1.1073. The Australian dollar was up 0.4 percent at USD 0.7519, taking back some lost ground after falling in the previous session as a subdued inflation report left the door open for an interest rate cut next week.
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